Trouble in the Kingdom?

With Super Bowl LV in the books, I wanted to look at the Kansas City Chiefs and how this loss could affect them going forward, as it does appear that many just expect them to bounce straight back and be on their way to SoFi stadium in California for Super Bowl LVI; heck, at the time of writing even Vegas has them as the odds on favourite to win it all next year.

However, history suggests that the majority of teams to lose the Super Bowl the year before very rarely make it back the season after.

Super Bowl LV

Let's start with the Super Bowl just gone, where the Chiefs were handily beaten by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-9 (you can find my recap of the game itself on this site under the featured article).

The most glaring reason the Chiefs lost is because they were playing with a much maligned offensive line, missing left tackle Eric Fisher to a torn Achilles and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff, who didn't play the entire season as he was putting his Doctorate in medicine to good use, helping fight the Covid-19 outbreak in a long term care facility in Quebec.

This resulted in Patrick Mahomes getting pressured on 16 of his 46 drop backs, where the Bucs only sent four pass-rushers… getting all 3 of their sacks on said pressures. According to Pro Football Focus, the Chiefs' quarterback was pressured in less than 2.5 seconds on 24 snaps (or 43%) which is just not sustainable if you want to win any game, let alone the Super Bowl.

However, what's more surprising is that Kansas City didn't adjust to what Tampa Bay's defence was doing, which was playing Cover 2 for much of the game. Instead of trying to incorporate more RPO's (Run/Pass Option plays) and quick passing which they did two weeks before against the Buffalo Bills (with great success), they decided to live… and ultimately die, by their deep shot offense, meaning Mahomes was taking his usual 10-12 step drop and holding the ball for what felt like forever in order to let plays develop; something you can't do when your pass protection is letting free rushers through every snap. By the time head coach Andy Reid or Mahomes decided to adjust to this, they were already down two or three scores and the game was over.

When Mahomes was able to escape the pressure and get a throw off he was not helped by his receivers, who dropped multiple passes in key situations; for example, if Tyreek Hill and Damien Williams don't have the ball hit them in the face mask while in the end zone, who knows how the game could have gone (the pass to Hill especially, as this was when the score was tied 0-0). No one was safe from "the drops", as Travis Kelce also had a few during the game, with one being on a key 3rd and 8 when the game was still close. The whole Chiefs offense just couldn’t get anything going all night.

The Chiefs leave the field, led by tight end Travis Kelce, after losing 31-9 in Super Bowl LV.

Patrick Mahomes' Play

Look, this game was not all on Patrick Mahomes. Quite clearly he had no time to set up and was being chased around the field on almost every snap, but let's be honest; Mahomes has not played particularly well for seven out of the eight quarters in the Super Bowls he has participated in.

Remember that even in Super Bowl LIV Mahomes wasn't setting the World alight like he has done during the regular season. If not for the now famous "Wasp" call on a 3rd and 15 and the inability of the San Francisco 49ers defence to hold onto a 10 point fourth quarter lead, we might be looking at Mahomes in a totally different light when it comes to the NFL's biggest game.

Let me be clear though, I am not saying that Patrick Mahomes is not deserving of the praise he receives for his incredible play, his raw arm strength, ability to extend plays and make, quite frankly, almost impossible throws that any other mere mortal could only dream of… at the age of 25 no less. It is also extremely difficult to get to back-to-back Super Bowls, let alone win them (the last team to do this? The '03/'04 New England Patriots) so it is not exactly an everyday occurrence.

Looking at stats alone though, Mahomes' two Super Bowl appearances reads as a distinctly average: 52 of 91 for 556 yards, an average completion percentage rate of 57.5%, a touchdown to interception ratio of 2:4 and an average quarterback rating of 56.7; note quite the MVP worthy numbers he has put up during the regular season. All Mahomes knows in the NFL is winning, making the AFC Championship game in all three of the seasons he has started but when he gets to the biggest game of all, we have not seen the same player we see in the regular season, in both his Super Bowl win, and loss.

You can't put it all on Patrick Mahomes, but his play in the Super Bowl does not mirror his regular season production.

The Super Bowl hangover

It is very rare for the winner of the previous Super Bowl to repeat this feat the next season (as mentioned above with the last team to go back-to-back was in the '03/'04 season), but it is even rarer for the loser to go back to the Super Bowl and in a few cases, a challenge to even have a positive record come the end of the year.

There have been only three teams to go back and win a Super Bowl after losing it the season before; the 1971 Dallas Cowboys, the 1972 Miami Dolphins, and the 2018 New England Patriots being the most recent.

Since 2000, the Super Bowl loser has had a losing season nine times the year after (with one winning season belonging to the New England Patriots in 2008, who went 11-5 but missed out on the playoffs).

Chiefs' fans may find solace in more recent history though, as throughout the last twelve seasons, the Super Bowl loser has managed to get back to the playoffs ten times, but only one team has managed to actually go back to the Super Bowl and win it in that span; the aforementioned 2018 New England Patriots. So while it is not impossible, it is certainly not a given that we will see Kansas City back in the big game so soon.

Challengers to the AFC Crown

The Chiefs have done what no other team in the AFC has done before, which is to host three straight AFC Championship games; and while that is unbelievable in its own right, there are a number of teams looking to host a Championship game themselves.

You look at teams like the Steelers, with "Big Ben" Roethlisberger entering what could be his final season and as a team, just need to learn how to close out a regular season winning games instead of losing them, and backing into the playoffs. You also have the Ravens, who will be looking for Lamar Jackson to have another MVP season and improve on his first playoff win this year. There are also the Buffalo Bills, losers of this year's AFC Championship game, who have one of the more well-rounded teams in the league with signal caller Josh Allen looking to build upon his fantastic season.

When you win as much as the Chiefs have done over the last few years, you will usually be in every other team's crosshairs, making any regular season game their own personal Super Bowl (just ask anyone who played against the New England Patriots for the last twenty years); and with the Chiefs showing you that they are in fact, beatable… you best believe that teams are going to give them their absolute best shot each and every week.

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens are both looking dethrone the Chiefs.

Final Thoughts

Overall history suggests that the Kansas City Chiefs won't be able to get back to the Super Bowl, let alone win it all; however I look around the rest of the AFC and wonder who can legitimately contend for the top spot there right now (If Deshaun Watson can get a trade out of Houston and go to somewhere like the Denver Broncos, or if the Carson Wentz trade to the extremely talented Indianapolis Colts works out, who knows?) and if the Chiefs are good enough to host three straight Championship games, what is to say they can't host a fourth?

But before Chiefs' fans get all excited and book their tickets to California for the 6th February, a cautionary tale; when the Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl XLVIII in 2013 and went back the year after (losing in heart breaking fashion to the New England Patriots… another Tom Brady led team), many assumed the Seahawks were just too talented not to be able to overcome the loss and be back in the Super Bowl soon. Fast forward seven years and they have not made it past the Divisional round of the playoffs since.

It just goes to show how hard it is to get to a Super Bowl and that nothing is guaranteed, which in my opinion, is what makes the NFL so exciting in the first place, and that crowning teams and/or players as the next greatest thing after one Super Bowl appearance is all rather a moot point. The Chiefs however, will be looking to put this year behind them and get back to the top of the mountain again as soon as possible.

Can the Kansas City Chiefs get back to the top of the mountain again?

Do you think the Chiefs can make it to Super Bowl LVI? Let me know in the comments.